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Research into Population Health wins Distinguished Lorentz Fellowship 2

Caswell, Hal

Distinguished Lorentz Fellow

Population Health: a new comprehensive framework

Project Description

The research project will develop demographic models of healthy longevity, disease prevalence and incidence, causes of death, and occupancy of health states. The models will be combine population projection matrices, Markov chains with rewards, multistate life tables, and sensitivity analysis with applications to human and animal populations. I will explore connections to epidemiological models of disease transmission, and to projections of future population growth and structure (of humans
responding to trends in mortality and fertility, or of animals responding to climate change) over decadal time scales. At shorter time scales, the models will be applicable to medical demography where calculations are focused on the progression of specific diseases within an individual lifespan, often following treatments.

Selected Publications

Caswell, H. 2019. Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology. Demographic Research Monographs. Springer-Verlag. (in press).
Caswell, H. and V. Zarulli. 2018. Matrix methods in health demography: a new approach to the stochastic analysis of healthy longevity and DALYs. Population Health Metrics 16:8 doi.org/10.1186/s12963-018-0165-5
Caswell, H., L. de Vries, N. Hartemink, G. Roth, and S. F. van Daalen. 2018. Age x stage-classified demography: a comprehensive approach. Ecological Monographs 88:560-584.

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