Project title

Crisis and Catastrophe: Science-Based Policy Justification under Urgency and Uncertainty

Research question

How can we make justified policy decisions in a crisis, where we need to act quickly, but on limited and uncertain information?

Project description

In a crisis, we generally have to act very quickly. But acting quickly means acting under uncertainty. Uncertainty can pose a lot of problems for policymaking – it’s difficult to see what the implications of policies will be, and thus to choose between options, and to justify our choice. It’s hard to see how to hold policymakers responsible, if they’re not in a position to tell what the consequences of their decisions will be. And where policymakers are departing from their usual, slow, reliable procedures, it can be more difficult to trust them.

But justification, responsibility and trust are indispensable, even – perhaps particularly – in a crisis. My research here will thus centre around three questions:

1) What procedures or circumstances legitimize policy action in the face of severe uncertainty?

2) What are the responsibilities of scientific advisors and policymakers when acting on highly uncertain information?

3) How can we retain public trust in scientific expertise and scientific advice under uncertainty?

Selected publications